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Showing posts with label economic crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic crisis. Show all posts

Thursday, 14 February 2013

North-east England's 'bounce back' is not all good news

This article of mine was published on The Guardian's Comment is Free yesterday. Do take my advice in the final paragraph and join the anti-cuts march in Newcastle on Saturday.  
 
Earlier this week the Financial Times reported good news, of a sort, about job creation in the regions that have been most badly affected by recession: northern England (including the north-east, where I live) and the Midlands. Unemployment in the north-east is now down from a high of almost 12% just over a year ago to 9.1%, reportedly due to an increase in private sector job creation. In other northern regions, there has been at least a small drop in the jobless rate. This might appear to support Tory claims that the private sector can compensate for job losses resulting from public sector cuts, spearheading an economic recovery in areas of high unemployment. But scratch the surface, and it's not difficult to identify the problems with this assumption.

This "bouncing back" is from a particularly poor base, as it is happening in areas of the country previously hit very harshly by the recession. The north-east still has the highest unemployment rate of any region. There is also the small matter of the increase in employment not leading to any evident economic growth: coalition policies threaten to prevent any long-term recovery as they suppress spending power and discourage investment. With a triple-dip recession possibly on the horizon, it is clear that austerity isn't working.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the north-east saw employment grow by 2.2% in the four months up to November 2012, compared to a national increase of 0.4%. But what jobs are being created? What we are seeing is a partial shift from unemployment to under-employment. Those who want full-time jobs settle for part-time work. Many who want secure, permanent employment have to settle for insecure, temporary posts. Workers of varying ages and from a range of backgrounds can't get the secure work they crave.

It is true that some of the jobs growth in the north-east is secure employment with decent pay. The region's annual exports have grown from £8bn to £14bn in the last five years, enabling job creation in areas such as the car industry. But a great deal of the current increase in jobs appears to be part-time or low-paid work, such as in hotels, bars and restaurants. Many young people especially are still struggling to find meaningful work, whether recent graduates – taking on jobs that don't require a university education so they can make ends meet – or those who are less well qualified.

It has been suggested that a large public sector in the north-east has previously "crowded out" the private sector – the logic being that public sector cuts can therefore facilitate private sector growth. But there is no reason why a large public sector workforce should act as a deterrent to private sector investment. What appears to be happening, however, is that private firms are exploiting high unemployment – as a consequence of severe cuts to the public sector – and cuts in public sector pay to hire workers more cheaply. Cuts and unemployment are therefore being utilised to hold down private sector wages. Across public and private sectors alike, there is a race to the bottom in pay and conditions.

Meanwhile the public sector cuts become more drastic, with no end to austerity in sight. Newcastle Council estimates it will be making 1,300 of its employees redundant as a result of cuts imposed by central government on its spending. Other local councils in the region will add thousands more to the newly jobless. Mass redundancies in the public sector are so severe that any modest private sector jobs growth cannot possibly compensate for them.
Thousands of skilled, experienced and qualified workers will lose their jobs, thrown into an uncertain future in which they will either fail to find work or settle for temporary or low-paid jobs. The fear of unemployment will, as it does already, discipline those still holding on to their jobs into accepting pay freezes and pension cuts. This may suit government and employers, but it is a rotten deal for the rest of us.

The coalition wants to pit public sector workers against private sector workers, just as it tries to divide us into "strivers" or "shirkers". These are false dichotomies: an ideological distortion, not a reflection of economic and social reality. Opposition to the government must unite those who are its victims, while rejecting the myth that private sector growth can flourish as public services, jobs and pay take a hammering. This will be a key message on the streets of Newcastle this Saturday, when the north-east's trade unions and community campaigns will march in unison "to stop the cuts and save our services".


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Saturday, 10 December 2011

Austerity vs Democracy

I recommend reading Neil Faulkner's EU Summit: the dictatorship of finance capital and Owen Jones' The EU treaty is a disaster for the left. I especially recommend them if you are attending Wednesday's 'Austerity vs Democracy' forum in Newcastle (see below). Also, the current political crisis in Europe is a reminder of why we sorely need international co-ordination to stop the cuts, as I recently argued HERE.

Austerity vs Democracy: making sense of the crisis with James Meadway
Hosted by Counterfire - free entry - all welcome

Wednesday 14 December, 6.30-8pm
Settle Down Cafe, 61-62 Thornton Street, Newcastle, NE1 4AW
VENUE: http://bit.ly/uQC952

Facebook Event (RSVP by clicking on 'attending'): http://on.fb.me/vn1Be4
A very brief introduction from James Meadway here: http://bit.ly/uXx2f7

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Wednesday, 5 October 2011

Europe Against Austerity - a call for co-ordinated global resistance


Besancenot: 'the movements must converge'
I'm rather late with re-posting this from Counterfire, but here's my report of Saturday's excellent Europe Against Austerity conference.

Saturday's Europe Against Austerity conference launched a call for international anti-cuts co-ordination. The event at London's Camden Centre, organised by Coalition of Resistance, was addressed by speakers from a wide range of left wing, anti-capitalist and labour movement groups from across Europe. 681 people attended, including 150 international delegates.

The conference took place against the backdrop of a worsening crisis in the Eurozone, with contagion in the continent's financial system and the prospect of imminent debt default in Greece. Governments are committed to cuts and privatisation to make the vast majority of people pay for this crisis.

Greek trade union activists spoke of the social misery inflicted on their country, but also the explosive resistance in the form of demonstrations and strikes. There were speeches from leading activists in Portugal, Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Spain and elsewhere. This was the first major event to bring together anti-cuts groups from across the continent to discuss the crisis we face, alternative solutions, and how to build effective resistance.

UK activists talked about 30 November as a chance for a festival of resistance, a day for the whole movement which unites trade unionists with everyone else who is affected by cuts. Other speakers, including from Spain, talked about the experience of mass protests by 'the indignant' and the need to connect such street demonstrations and occupations with the union movement.

Olivier Besancenot, leading New Anticapitalist Party member and a former French presidential candidate, said: "The movements must converge - we must make solidarity with the struggles of the indignant. Today creates new possibilities. Be more radical than we can imagine because the stakes are so high."

Participants agreed a statement which stresses that the current crisis affects the whole of Europe and the need for an alternative economic strategy. It also pledges support for a number of upcoming demonstrations, plus a co-ordinated day of action in early 2012. It calls on European trade unions to co-ordinate strike action.

Workshops throughout the afternoon addressed a wide range of topics, from the roots of the crisis to imperialism and austerity, from youth movements to the defence of public health care. The level of political discussion was strikingly high, with international perspectives and numerous connections between different campaigns and issues. A recurring theme was the need to articulate alternative economic demands, such as a people's debt audit for countries threatened with default and - across Europe - greater public investment to create jobs and growth.

The conference was an important part of a landmark weekend for the anti-cuts movement, with 15,000 demonstrating in Glasgow and at least 35,000 outside Tory Party Conference in Manchester. As we face a deepening international crisis, the need for co-ordination of mass action becomes more urgent.

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Friday, 23 September 2011

Urgent: one week to build Europe Against Austerity



Via Counterfire

Europe is facing its biggest crisis since the 1930s.

Commentators are admitting the situation is desperate, and that politicians are paralysed. Austerity is driving the economies back towards recession and increasing debt - and in the case of Greece possible collapse.

A Greek default looks almost certain - and soon. In Greece this will mean mass unemployment and immiseration not seen in Europe since the 1930s. It will threaten the European banking system and will send shockwaves through the rest of the world economy.

The European conference against austerity - in London on Saturday 1 October - will now be an emergency conference on the euro crisis and in solidarity with the people of Greece.

Leading activists are coming from all parts of the movement from the German Left Party to the Indignados from Spain. The Portuguese Left Bloc is sending an MP and trade union delegates are coming from all over the continent.

Olivier Besancenot, a leading figure in the New Anticapitalist Party in France, will be there alongside striking Le Havre dockworkers. It could be a historic conference which can start co-ordinating resistance across Europe.

People are now signing up fast online. Two days ago the Greek teachers union got in touch to say that they are sending representatives. Yesterday they were on strike.

If asked, most groups here will send delegations. Cambridge trades council report there will be delegations from a number of the local unions. A delegation of at least 20 is expected from the Oxford anti cuts movement.

Westminster Unison is contacting all its members to organise a delegation as is Ipswich PCS (civil service union) and an East London teachers' union. 5000 leaflets have been distributed by the University of London Union.

Counterfire is urging all members and supporters to go flat out to build the event from now. We need to make sure everyone understands how urgent the situation is and what a difference the conference could make.

As well as ensuring local activists we know are coming and promoting the conference on facebook, e-mail and twitter we should be contacting local anti cuts groups, Stop the War groups, UK Uncut, pensioners' groups, trades councils, trade unions, student unions etc and ask them to organise delegations.

This is a chance the movement can't afford to miss.

Register for the Europe Against Austerity conference

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Friday, 2 September 2011

Tyneside premiere of Debtocracy

'Tyne and Wear Coalition of Resistance are hosting a screening of Debtocracy – “a compelling film about Greece’s financial crisis which makes the case that the entire euro system was rotten from the start” (The Guardian).

Downloaded by millions of citizens in Greece and across Europe, ‘Debtocracy’ is spreading like wildfire. The film seeks the causes of the debt crisis and proposes solutions – solutions hidden by the governments of Europe and the dominant media.

This is a unique opportunity to see this superb documentary (75 mins long with English subtitles) on the big screen and to help raise funds for Coalition of Resistance in its ongoing campaign against the coalition government's brutal programme of cutbacks which are wrecking the lives of millions.'

Wednesday 21 September - 7pm
Salsa Cafe (upstairs), 89 Westgate Road, Newcastle

Pay on the door: £3 waged/£1.50 unwaged

Hosted by Coalition of Resistance and sponsored by Gateshead health branch of Unison.

•Email:cornortheast@gmail.com
•Telephone: 07958 635 850


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Thursday, 1 September 2011

Five reasons why we need Europe Against Austerity


1. We need unity and co-ordination, nationally and internationally. The European Conference Against Austerity in London will strengthen the links between different groups and activists, countering problems of division and fragmentation. Our government is a weak, fragile coalition which can only survive if the opposition to austerity is localised and fragmented. Much the same is true in many other countries. We need maximum unity in action.

2. The 1 October conference takes the step up to international co-ordination. The UK government's attacks on public services and welfare are part of a wider assault across Europe, an attempt to make the vast majority of people pay the price for bailing out the banks. We need to organise across borders in response.

3. This is the first major international initiative for the anti-cuts movement - it is on a significantly bigger scale, involving broader forces, than any previous initiatives. It is desperately overdue and may become the start of something even bigger in the longer term.

4. The conference is a superb chance to discuss the big political issues and talk about alternatives to the eurozone crisis and ruling class 'solutions' to it. Europe's economic and political crisis is one of the dominant themes of global politics in 2011. This is a unique opportunity to wrestle with the issues in the company of the anti-capitalist left and campaigners from across the continent.

5. The conference isn't just about activists across a wide range of countries communicating with each other. It holds out the hope of co-ordinated action. A first step will be the forums and demonstrations in France in early November, providing an antidote to the G20, but there is potential for much more. The conference can be the launchpad for co-ordinated action across Europe.

Find out more - and register for the conference - at Europe Against Austerity.



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Saturday, 27 August 2011

It's all kicking off - but why now?

Tunis, 18 January 2011
Damian Carrington shares some revealing new research findings:

'Seeking simple explanations for the Arab spring uprisings that have swept through Tunisia, Egypt and now Libya, is clearly foolish amidst entangled issues of social injustice, poverty, unemployment and water stress. But asking "why precisely now?" is less daft, and a provocative new study proposes an answer: soaring food prices.

Furthermore, it suggests there is a specific food price level above which riots and unrest become far more likely. That figure is 210 on the UN FAO's price index: the index is currently at 234, due to the most recent spike in prices which started in the middle of 2010.

Lastly, the researchers argue that current underlying food price trends - excluding the spikes - mean the index will be permanently over the 210 threshold within a year or two. The paper concludes: "The current [food price] problem transcends the specific national political crises to represent a global concern about vulnerable populations and social order." Big trouble, in other words.'

I recommend reading the article in full. While the research is focused on current developments, there is an interesting historical perspective on this too. I was reminded of this insightful post from Paul Mason in April: Revolutions and the price of bread: 1848 and now

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Thursday, 25 August 2011

David Harvey and the changing geography of capitalism

I finally got round to reading David Harvey’s superb ‘The Enigma of Capital’ recently. This post is a brief summary of a few key themes in a book which also covers several major topics that I barely touch on here (financialisation, debt, the history of capitalist crisis, origins of the current crisis etc).

My focus here is on Harvey’s analysis of the development of capitalism as a truly global system – and, correspondingly, the growth of a global urban working class.

Capitalism depends upon labour. It needs what Marx called ‘an industrial reserve army’ to do the work that generates profits for the capitalists. The expansion of capital requires a growing supply of workers. David Harvey observes that:

‘In the last thirty years…some 2 billion wage labourers have been added to the available global workforce, through the opening-up of China and the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe’.

It is possible to take issue with the assumption that China and eastern Europe were previously outside capitalist relations, but it’s undeniably true that recent decades have seen market capitalism come to dominate the globe.

There is a correlation between capital expansion and population growth. Harvey writes: ‘There is, in fact, a very general relation between compound population growth and compounding capital accumulation.’ In China the rapid economic growth since 1980 has been linked to an earlier dramatic reduction in infant mortality rates, which in turn ‘resulted in a massive young labour force clamouring for employment’.

Capitalism emerged, initially in north-western Europe, in the 17th and 18th centuries. Capitalism has grown and expanded alongside a massive increase in the world’s population. Harvey writes:

‘Since around 1700, the world’s population has grown at a compound rate that, interestingly, parallels the compounding rate of capital accumulation. Global population topped 1 billion around 1810. It rose from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 2.4 billion by 1950 and to over 6 billion by 2000. Estimates now put it at 6.8 billion. Projections put it at 9 billion or so by 2050.’

The perpetual expansion of the population – as both workers and consumers – has been essential to the flourishing of capitalism. This has been complemented by the expansion of capitalist relations into new areas.

In recent decades the growing proletarianisation of rural populations in China has provided the basis for spectacular economic growth. The transformation of peasants into proletarians which happened generations ago in the West has in recent decades become a global phenomenon, in some places happening more rapidly than during the industrial revolution in western Europe.

Urbanisation has accompanied the global expansion of capitalism. Cities numbering millions of people used to be a rarity, limited to the US and Europe. That has changed enormously, especially with the rise of mega-cities in Asia. The growth of the ‘urban’ has been closely intertwined with capital accumulation and the development of a truly global working class.

Migration for work is another characteristic of this highly urbanised, expansive global capitalism. Harvey writes:

‘Captive labour forces of indentured domestic servants, migrant gangs of construction workers and agricultural labourers vie with local populations and individuals who move in search of better chances in life… diasporas of all kinds (of both business and labour) form networks that intricately weave into the spatial dynamics of capital accumulation.’

Migration is closely linked to the search for work: migration from the countryside to the cities, or from one part of the world to another. Harvey relates that ‘while the foreign-born population of the US stood at around 5% in 1970, it is over 12.5% today.’ One consequence is the ethnically diverse character of the workforce in many countries, though there has often also been a rise in anti-immigrant rhetoric and prejudice.

Roughly simultaneous to these processes of global expansion and urbanisation has been ‘the mobilisation of women, who now form the backbone of the global workforce’. In more recently industrialised areas of the globe, like east Asia, women make up a huge portion of the workforce, but gender pay disparities are often (even) worse than in countries like the US and UK.

Such inequalities in the working class are used to suppress the interests of all workers. Harvey analyses how capitalists, and pro-capitalist politicians, have fostered divisions inside the working class:

‘All along, capitalists have sought to control labour by putting individual workers in competition with each other for the jobs on offer. To the degree that the potential labour force is gendered, racialised, ethnicised, tribalised or divided by language, political and sexual orientation and religious beliefs, so these differences emerge as fundamental to the workings of the labour market.’

There is, though, huge geographical unevenness in both population growth and capitalist expansion. As Harvey writes: ‘The more advanced centres of capital accumulation, such as much of western Europe and Japan, have slipped into negative population growth… while the rest of Asia, Latin America and Africa continue to increase.’

This refers, broadly speaking, to the divide between Old Capitalism – centred in the US and western Europe – and the New Capitalism of China, east Asia and Latin America. These are the two inter-related but distinct halves of the global capitalism.

Harvey traces the changing fortunes and recurring crises in Western economies since the 1970s, but is also highly sensitive to the differences within the global economy in any given period.

Since the 1970s the major Western economies have been afflicted by a series of crises. The crisis which developed in 2007/08, and which shapes contemporary politics for many of us, is primarily one affecting Europe and the US. While it has global ramifications, there is huge unevenness across different regions. This is against the backdrop of a general shift in the dynamics of the global system, with China and east Asia experiencing long-term growth while many advanced Western economies struggle.

Harvey writes:

‘Bilateral trade between China and Latin America increased tenfold between 2000 and 2009. Is the urbanisation of China the primary stabiliser of global capitalism? The answer has to be a partial yes. But it is also the case that real estate development has been crucial to class formation in China. This is where immense personal fortunes have been made in very short order.’

Harvey is alert to the evolving balance of economic and political power between different nation states, which principally represent the capitalist and ruling class interests located inside their borders. The end of the Cold War saw the collapse of a former superpower: the USSR. Although this appeared to leave the US dominant – the sole remaining superpower, with unrivalled hegemony – the US economy has in fact been in decline relative to a number of emerging economies, notably China.

The modern world was shaped in the era of imperialist expansion, and rivalry between the European ‘Great Powers’, from around 1870 until the aftermath of World War One. The major European powers utilised their economic strength to build empires, colonising large swathes of Africa, Asia and the Middle East, and achieving global dominance. Harvey recalls: ‘Most of the world’s territorial boundaries were laid down between 1870 and 1925 and most of these were drawn by British and French imperial power alone’.

By 1945 the old European powers were in decline; a process of decolonisation rapidly developed. Rivalry between the US and USSR – each with considerable spheres of influence – dominated world politics. The US, however, was the unrivalled economic superpower, a status sustained during the long post-war boom. It shrewdly established new international economic and political institutions, at the end of the Second World War, to assert its dominance (as well as using its military superiority for the same purpose).

Harvey writes:

‘The geographical configurations of state power achieved after 1945 remained fairly stable, once decolonisation was completed. But in recent times the map of the world has changed. The United Nations originally comprised 51 states but it now boasts 192 members. A whole series of reterritorialisations began after 1989 with the break-up of the Soviet Union and the subsequent dissolution of Yugoslavia.’

The 1990s was primarily a decade of neoliberal hegemony, of unrivalled liberal capitalism, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc, reinforced by the trend of market liberalisation in China. The east Asian crash of 1997-98 scuppered the illusion of unstoppable neoliberalism, though without triggering a global crisis. Since then the emergent Asian economies have recovered and have tended to sustain higher growth levels than advanced Western economies. The geography of capitalist crisis has decisively shifted back to the West.

It is still possible that the current crisis will become the first truly global slump in history, but so far the effects have been very geographically uneven with China, for example, maintaining rapid growth while the US and most of Europe stagnate. For now there remains a clear distinction between Old Capitalism and New Capitalism.

The evolving economic situation influences changes in geopolitical power relations. It isn't obvious how this will play out in the long term - or exactly what repercussions there will be in terms of political or even military conflicts - but it is apparent that the world's economic and political geography is changing profoundly.

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Links for David Harvey videos I've posted on Luna17:

Animated: Crises of capitalism
Wall Street, Wisconsin and the crisis of capitalism
The crisis deepens - what's going on?

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Friday, 8 July 2011

Suicide rates rise across Europe as unemployment grows

BBC News has a revealing report on new research findings showing the link between economic crisis and mental health, specifically the rise in suicide rates across Europe during 2007-09. It reports:

'The analysis by US and UK researchers found a rise in suicides was recorded among working age people from 2007 to 2009 in nine of the 10 nations studied. The increases varied between 5% and 17% for under 65s after a period of falling suicide rates, The Lancet reported.

Researchers said investment in welfare systems was the key to keeping rates down. In particular, they argued supporting people back into work or having programmes to stop them losing their jobs in the first place was more important than giving them benefits.'

Anyone who has read the excellent book 'The Spirit Level', by Kate Pickett and Richard Wilkinson, will know about the correlations between economics and a whole range of health and social problems. It outlines, in exhaustive detail, the relationships between economic inequality and issues such as crime rates, mental health and life expectancy, making comparisons between different countries.

This fresh research indicates how mental health problems can become worse with the onset of an economic crisis. Countries especially badly hit by the crisis - such as Greece - appear to have the sharpest increases in suicide rates.

There seems to be a particular emphasis on jobs - not just people losing work, but also the fear of losing work. Unemployment and insecurity are thus both factors in worsening mental health problems, reflected in the suicide levels. BBC News says:

'During the period, there was a rise in unemployment by a third. Only Austria saw suicide rates fall. This was put down to the country being less exposed to the financial crisis than the others.

Of the risers, Finland fared best while Greece had the worst record. The UK saw a rise of 10% to 6.75 suicides per 100,000 people.'

At a time of cuts to UK mental health services, Andy Bell of the Centre for Mental Health is correct to emphasise "how important it is that we treat the mental health of people who are not just out of work but also in work but fear losing their jobs as a major public health issue". The cuts make this much harder and mean people who need support simply aren't getting it.

But what's even more important is that unemployment is brought down. The waves of job losses in the last few years are bad for our mental health. The human cost is appalling. No amount of rhetoric from David Cameron about 'national wellbeing' can change that.

BBC News report: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-14068496

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Thursday, 23 June 2011

The crisis deepens - what's going on?

James Meadway has written a major new analysis of unfolding events in Greece and their broader context. It is appropriately titled 'Greek Crisis: The Four Horsemen of the Acropolis' and looks at the deepening problems for Europe's rulers in this framework:

'We are seeing the outcome of a collision between the collapse of the world financial system in 2008, and the weak Eurozone economy and institutions.

The bankruptcy of Lehman Bros in September 2008 in turn brought banks across the world to their knees. Governments bailed out their stricken financial institutions. Direct injections of cash and promises of support totalled, on IMF estimates, $7trillion globally.

The financial collapse induced a sharp recession that also forced up government borrowing. Unemployment skyrocketed just as tax receipts shrank, resulting in rising public deficits.

The financial crisis was transformed into a crisis of government debt in an effort to limit the damage. But the European financial and monetary systems are too weak to complete this shift successfully. As detailed by the a Research on Money and Finance group, their structural deficiencies are causing the transformation to unravel.'

On the subject of the broader economic crisis since 2008, I recommend watching this interview with David Harvey - at less than 10 minutes it is a concise overview.



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Friday, 17 June 2011

European crisis: Paul Mason on Greece

Paul Mason, BBC Newsnight's economics editor, has blogged from Greece five times in the last few days (see his BBC blog). I recommend reading all these posts, but if you read just one then make it 'Ten points on the Euro crisis', a thorough overview of the political and economic issues which grasps the global implications of the crisis centred on Greece.  

This extract from Wednesday's 'Greek state starting to lose grip on functions of state' captures, it seems, a great deal about the situation (though my impression is that Mason's 'slightly' in the opening paragraph is an understatement):

'There is a social crisis under way and I think it is different from the one our history books teach us to expect. It's not like the cracking of the state, or mass unrest, but simply that the Greek state - whose reach was never far into society - is beginning to lose its grip slightly on the actual functions a state should do.

It cannot decide its economic policy; it can't convince its own people of any good intent; the rule of law is imposed hard here - with the impounding of yachts bought through tax evasion - only to break down somewhere else, as people begin to pledge non-payment of bills for the privatised utilities.

It is not anarchy here, but - to use another Hellenic word - neither is there catharsis. As the conservative daily Kathimerini put it in an editorial last night: "Prime Minister George Papandreou does not seem to be on top of things anymore."

Actually the violence - though at a level several notches up from north-European rioting - remains like nearly all riots within a set formula: the rioters attack, the police fight back with stun grenades and gas, the rioters set fire to stuff, run away, the police control the streets, it goes dark…

But the violence is a sideshow: it is the political paralysis of the Greek government that is of world importance because - while the European Union bickers about how much bankers should lose versus how much the EU should lose as Greece defaults - you are seeing the lines of defence against financial and social chaos within this part of Europe getting very frayed.

A technical default for Greece looks close now - according to S&P even if Greece does everything it is asked to, its rating can never rise above CCC (which is junk). But in the policymaking circles the real worry is whether this will trigger a new round of credit failures. The Greek banks would collapse with any serious default on the debt; but the shock would also ripple through to north-European banks. And while most of them are in a shape to take the hit, not all of them are. And not all of the ones that look exposed are in states big enough to bail them out.

So with the recovery looking shaky across Asia, a credit event here in Greece could knock back sustained recovery even further. That's what my City contacts are worrying about in e-mails today.'

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Sunday, 13 March 2011

David Harvey on Wall Street, Wisconsin and the crisis of capitalism

I listened to this lecture earlier: David Harvey on The Enigma of Capital at MIT. If you can make time for it - 40 minutes or so (excluding the Q and A also in the video) - I strongly recommend you do likewise.

David Harvey brings his analysis right up to date, including comments on why the Wisconsin workers' revolt shouldn't surprise us. We take it for granted now, but we are blessed to have things like this online - rather than having to be at a top American university like MIT to hear it.

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Thursday, 4 November 2010

What kind of feminism in the 21st century? - Newcastle public meeting

Women, recession and resistance: what kind of feminism in the 21st century?

Public meeting hosted by Tyne and Wear Counterfire

Wednesday 10 November, 8pm start (please note new time)

Upstairs at Salsa Cafe, 89 Westgate Road, Newcastle, NE1 4AE

See Venue page and Facebook Event page

Working class women will bear the brunt of the government's savage and unjust cuts to welfare and public services, whether as users of public services or as public sector workers. But women will also be on the frontline of fighting back.

This meeting will raise and discuss a number of questions about women, class and British society today, including the question of how women and men alike can achieve fundamental social change.

The starting point for this public forum will be Lindsey German's short but powerful Feminist Manifesto, which can be read HERE 

Speakers: Elaine Graham Leigh, a London-based activist who is on Counterfire's national organising committee and Campaign Against Climate Change's steering committee, and local activist Lindy Syson.

Image: Zita Holbourne of BARAC and Coalition of Resistance

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Monday, 19 July 2010

Gary Younge: how the Left can re-frame the cuts debate

There's an excellent piece by Gary Younge at Comment is Free:

'The furore over the cancellation of school building projects – a scintilla of the carnage to come – shows that approval for the cuts will fall once they start to take effect. But the nature of government opposition will be shaped by whom people hold responsible for the situation and what options they understand.

It was not those with low-paid final salary pensions who got us here, but those raking in multimillion dollar bonuses. The wealthy created this crisis, and now the coalition is making ordinary working people pay for it by playing politics with the livelihoods of millions.

These are cuts of choice from a government we didn't choose. A softer landing is possible; a crash landing is imminent.'

Here in the North East we'll be discussing these issues, and plotting the way ahead, on Wednesday. See HERE for more - please join us.


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Saturday, 3 July 2010

Treasury: prepare for 40% cuts

The Observer has this report:

'Cabinet ministers have been ordered by the Treasury to plan for unprecedented cuts of 40% in their departmental budgets as the coalition widens the scope of its four-year austerity drive.

The eye-watering demand from the chief secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, was sent this weekend to cabinet colleagues ahead of a week in which ministers will step up emergency cost-cutting across the public sector.

The only departments not included in the Treasury trawl will be health and international development, which have been "ringfenced" for the current parliament. Education and defence will also escape lightly. Alexander has told the education secretary, Michael Gove, and the defence secretary, Liam Fox, to plan for two scenarios – cuts to budgets of 10% at best and 20% at worst over four years.

All other departments – including the Home Office, the Department for Work and Pensions and the Department for Transport – have been ordered to produce plans showing the impact of cuts of 25%, and at worst 40%.'

See also:
Budget: poorest tenth to suffer over 20% cut in income
Impact of cuts: 1.3 million jobs to go

Picture: Lib Dem Danny Alexander is right behind George Osborne


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Thursday, 1 July 2010

The crisis: Where did it come from? What's the solution?

The Crisis: Where did it come from? What's the solution?
Hosted by Tyne and Wear Counterfire

See Facebook Event.

Tuesday 13 July, 6pm, at Age Concern, Stockton Road, 2 minutes walk from Park Lane Interchange, Sunderland

Recommended viewing:



The ConDem coalition budget has made it clear that this government of millionaires is out to make working people pay for a crisis they didn't make. Prices are going up through tax hikes. Poor families, the disabled, the elderly are all being forced to pay.

But what caused the crash in the first place?
What should we do now?
What kind of action should we take to defend our jobs, services and income?

Speaker: Neil Faulkner. Neil is an academic archaeologist and hisorian and is currently writing the series "A Marxist History of the World", which is published weekly on Counterfire.

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Wednesday, 30 June 2010

Impact of cuts: 1.3 million jobs to go

Larry Elliott has an exclusive for The Guardian:

'George Osborne's austerity budget will result in the loss of up to 1.3m jobs across the economy over the next five years according to a private Treasury assessment of the planned spending cuts, the Guardian has learned.

Unpublished estimates of the impact of the biggest squeeze on public spending since the second world war show that the government is expecting between 500,000 and 600,000 jobs to go in the public sector and between 600,000 and 700,000 to disappear in the private sector by 2015.

The chancellor gave no hint last week about the likely effect of his emergency measures on the labour market, although he would have had access to the forecasts traditionally prepared for ministers and senior civil servants in the days leading up to a budget or pre-budget report.

A slide from the final version of a presentation for last week's budget – seen by the Guardian – says: "100-120,000 public sector jobs and 120-140,000 private sector jobs assumed to be lost per annum for five years through cuts".

The job losses in the public sector will result from the 25% inflation-adjusted reduction in Whitehall spending over the next five years, while the private sector will be affected both through the loss of government contracts and from the knock-on impact of lower public spending.'

Elliott goes on to report that the Treasury assumes 'growth in the private sector' will generate 2.5 million new jobs in the same period. But he also notes how the current state of the economy doesn't necessarily support the prognosis.

Whether any new jobs are created from economic growth or not, the fact is these 1 million-plus jobs will be lost. It will be devastating for those put out of work, rip into both the public and private sectors, and have a negative effect on the consumer spending of those made jobless - thus damaging the prospects for recovery from the most severe recession since the 1930s.

TUC general secretary Brendan Barber offers a good response in the Guardian report:

"With Treasury figures revealing that spending cuts will hit private sector jobs harder than those in the public sector, it is absurd to think that the private sector will create 2.5m new jobs over the next five years. This is not so much wishful thinking as a complete refusal to engage with reality. Much more likely are dole queues comparable to the 1980s, a new deep north-south divide and widespread poverty as the budget's benefit cuts start to bite. Many will find that a frightening prospect."

The Treasury's rosy outlook is torn apart by the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development's chief economist, who says: "There is not a hope in hell's chance of this happening [the creation of 2.5m new jobs]. There would have to be extraordinarily strong private sector employment growth in a … much less conducive economic environment than it was during the boom."

The CIPD actually estimates an even higher level of job losses in the public sector than the Treasury, suggesting 725,000 will be slashed by 2015. The really striking thing, however, is the scale of losses in the private sector. It highlights a massive effect of the cuts that I suspect most people are utterly unaware of.

In fact it explodes the myth of the public/private sector divide. We're told the key division in society is between public sector and private sector - or, more particularly, between the workers in each sector. Private sector workers are encouraged, by press, politicans and 'business leaders', to rally behind the government's slashing of the public sector, especially the pay and pensions of those working in it.

These new findings indicate why public and private sector workers must make common cause and reject divide and rule tactics. We are all affected by the cuts, as workers and as public service users. We will need maximum unity and co-operation in mounting a mass campaign to stop the cuts.

Also see:
Budget: poorest tenth to suffer over 20% cut in income
Cuts: what weapons do we need to fight back?

EXTRA: Larry Elliott's 'Slashing the budget deficit will have a dire effect on the North'

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Sunday, 27 June 2010

Cuts: what weapons do we need to fight back?

Jim Jepps has written an interesting piece on anti-cuts strategy, prompted by discussions at yesterday's's bloggers' conference organised by Liberal Conspiracy. I was also there and was heartened by how keen most people were to discuss the left's approach to resisting cuts, and by the widely-felt desire for a serious campaign of opposition. I agree with most of Jim's comments, and I think it's worth re-posting the bulk of his article:

'What we need to articulate in a more accessible form is the case against cuts, which is broadly a debate between the economics of Hayek and Keynes, certainly in the mainstream of the debate. However, in 'our' camp we have three different approaches to this question. First we have the approach that the cuts are too deep, too soon, but deficit reduction along these lines is inevitable. These people want to slow the cuts, and ensure they don't hit critical services.

Second we have those who oppose cuts as a deficit reduction measure on the basis that we can use equality and growth to combat the crisis. Savage cuts will wreak the economy, at a time when we should be investing, boosting jobs and raising extra funds from progressive taxation and schemes like the Robin Hood tax. These people argue that cuts full stop are bad for the economy, that laying people off as the dole queues grow is a recipe for a vicious cycle of decline.

Lastly we have anti-capitalists. This group steals arguments from the other two but essentially places the blame for the crisis on the economic framework itself and seeks to challenge that in a more fundamental way. Splenetic venting about bankers and fat cats is part of that, but it actually goes far further. The crisis was not caused by Leaman Brothers or Freddie Mac but the priorities of a system where profits come before people, and the millions come second to the millionaires.

Actually many people are mix of the three, but I think the categories stand.

How to find a unified voice then? Well it's not as tricky as it sounds as long as you don't expect everyone to sing from the same hymn sheet all of the time.

As of right now there are probably hundreds of campaign groups set up, formally or informally, up and down the country to defend local communities against specific cuts. All these groups will be alliances and, on the whole, they are an embryonic eco-system of resistance. Bloggers can be part of linking those campaigns, putting them in touch with each other and creating a more conscious movement against the cuts.

Those campaigns will be providing the arguments on the human cost of the cuts, these are useful for us all to remind us what we are fighting for. What that network of citizen journalists and campaigners should be doing is providing a digestible economic alternative that shows not just why cutting public services in dangerous and painful, but also why it is the wrong economic strategy. They can also provide resources, some fun some serious and weighty, that are useful campaigning tools that can be used and adapted across the country.

To my mind this approach needs to be supporting those resistance campaigns from the bottom up, rather than attempting to create a national army of clone campaigns under the auspices of a central command. I don't think that will work and it's not necessary because those community groups are already springing up 'organically'.

The left Keynsians and the anti-capitalists (I hope you forgive the crude generalisations there) can actually unite pretty easily on this and the wet left who think cuts are being managed poorly will find it harder to fit into that framework than they will when they become involved in the local campaigns to defend specific services. We can't play to the lowest common denominator so they'll just have to catch up.'

I only have two caveats about this. One is that Jim doesn't mention the trade unions - I'm sure he recognises they have an important role, but we need to be explicit about the need for co-operation between the unions and the campaigns he refers to.

A strong anti-cuts movement can encourage trade unionists to take strike action, which will be vital to defeating the government's policies. And those campaigns gain more weight from the unions' involvement.

Secondly, while I agree we need local grassroots campaigns - and to a certain extent these will emerge independently - we will also need a national movement to develop. The cuts programme is a national political issue, and the key players are Westminster politicans. We need opposition at a national level.

A national coalition may not be viable right now, but we'll benefit from developing networks that connect local campaigners - and national-level action, such as mass demonstrations in London or a protest at Tory conference on 3 October, will be essential.

Indeed, we might even link up with campaigns and unions elsewhere in Europe, as both the austerity drive and the resistance to it are international phenomena. Current events in Italy, France and Greece may indicate the direction of resistance here - and it will be important to forge international solidarity with strikes and mass protests in those countries and elsewhere.

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