Saturday, 24 April 2010

Election predictions: how am I doing so far?

On 8 April, as the election campaign got underway, I made some reckless election predictions. There's now under 2 weeks to go until polling day. So, does it look (at this stage) like my predictions will turn out to be blindingly prophetic - or thoroughly misplaced?

On 5 of my 8 predictions I think I'll turn out to be correct. On 3 of them (the first three, in fact) I'm not so sure. However, I'm still sticking by two of those, which leaves just one prediction where I reckon I'll have called it wrong.

My opening three predictions were that: Tories will have 'marginally more seats than Labour' in a hung parliament; turnout will be 60-63%; Lib Dems will get 20-22% of the vote and 'be frustrated at failing to pick up many seats'.

No prizes for guessing that it's the last of these that I suspect I got wrong. Cleggmania may not last until 6 May, but I'm pretty sure the Lib Dems will take more than 22%. They might still find, however, that they don't actually win many more seats. But I don't think anyone predicted the surge in their support, so I don't feel too bad about it.

Why am I unsure about the other two predictions cited above? It's possible turnout will be higher than anticipated, helped by the success of the TV debates, but I'm not convinced it will get above the 60-63% bracket I predicted. And I acknowledge there's a good chance of Labour pipping the Tories in the number of seats won (though, on balance, I'm still predicting the Tories take more seats, while hoping that they don't).

One final note: I'll be very happy if one of my original predictions turns out to be wrong. I suggested that Respect's Salma Yaqoob will come close but not quite win in Birmingham. If she wins then I'll be delighted to admit I mis-called it!

1 comment:

  1. I think you're doing great! keep up the good work and thanks for the plugs. We need quality bloggers like yourself at times like these!