Thursday, 8 April 2010

Some reckless election predictions

OK, here's where I take a big risk by making some predictions. I'll return to these when the results are in to see how (in)accurate I was.

1. There will be a hung parliament, with the Tories taking marginally more seats than Labour.

2. Turnout will be slightly higher than in the 2001 and 2005 elections, but not nearly as high as in 1997 when Labour won a landslide. I predict 60-63%, with the slightly increased turnout benefitting Labour but making little difference.

3. The Lib Dems will take 20-22% of the vote. They'll be pleased with their share of the vote but frustrated at failing to pick up many seats.

4. The BNP will come nowhere near winning any seats. Nick Griffin will do well in Barking and Dagenham, and a number of candidates elsewhere will get good votes. But it won't be the breakthrough the fascists hope for.

5. Caroline Lucas, leader of the Green Party, will win an extremely narrow victory in Brighton, giving the Greens their first ever MP.

6. Respect will fail to get anyone elected to the Commons, but Salma Yaqoob in Birmingham and Abjol Miah and George Galloway in east London will get strong votes. Salma Yaqoob, however, will be the only one who comes close to winning.

7. Almost all other left wing candidates, including Trade Union and Socialist Coalition (TUSC) candidates, will get very poor votes and lose deposits, though a few (including Dave Nellist in Coventry) will score respectable results.

8. UKIP will be marginalised and fail to make a significant impact. Also, we will not see the wave of victories for independents anticipated by some people when the expenses crisis was at its height.


  1. A expect all will be accurate except -

    1. Tories are the party with the most votes, but not the most seats.

    3. Lib-Dem share of the vote will be below 20%

    4. The BNP vote will be squeezed by the resurgence of the Tories.

  2. I think the BNP could only ever be helped by a resurgance of the Tories.

  3. The main factors resulting in the decline in the NF vote were the campaigns by anti-racists and the resurgence of the Tory party. I expect that a similar decline in the BNP could occur.

  4. I hope the people of Britain don't vote for bnp as they represent everything british are NOT. It would be like voting for the KU klux Klan to which the bnp are closely affiliated with. The world has moved on shame that the bnpand their supporters are still stuck in the middle ages. Why spend your short life on earth and energy hating people of different nationlities and colour when there is so much good around. Use your vote wisely, don't become what we are trying to fight - fascists.