Monday, 13 December 2010

Lib Dem support in North East collapses to 4%

How do you go from 24% of the votes to just 4% in the polls? Ask Nick Clegg.

Ipsos Mori reports HERE:

'Across Great Britain as a whole, Liberal Democrat support has averaged 15% between June and November, less than two-thirds of the 24% of the vote that the party secured at the general election; the swing has been almost entirely to Labour, with the Conservatives holding the 37% they won in May.

But there have been big differences in the changes in support in different regions. In the North East, Liberal Democrat support has almost disappeared, falling to just 4% of those certain to vote, an overall swing to Labour of 19%.'

The exact figures are presented in a graph. In the general election the Tories took 24% in the region and the polls say 23%, so no real change. But the fall for the Lib Dems is, spectacularly, from 24% to 4%. Labour has gone from 44% to 62%.

Call me an over-simplistic polling analyst if you like, but that looks like a straightforward transfer of voters from LibDem to Labour. Why? Because the vast majority of this region's Lib Dem votes in the last election came from people who are basically centre-left or left-wing. They were disillusioned with the last Labour government, saw the LibDems as at least a little better, but are now repelled by Clegg and co's role in a right-wing government.
 
Following recent protests in Newcastle, and in the wake of this new polling data, I don't recommend Clegg visits us any time soon.
 
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