tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093114275469628673.post3068012065739883871..comments2023-06-02T17:22:43.445+01:00Comments on Luna17: What I predicted for 2012 - and how it actually turned outluna17http://www.blogger.com/profile/03754650933188634442noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093114275469628673.post-42356031317850412042012-12-24T20:13:58.739+00:002012-12-24T20:13:58.739+00:00Thanks for those comments Jim.
On Iran and Syria...Thanks for those comments Jim. <br /><br />On Iran and Syria, perhaps the surprising thing in 2012 is that there *hasn't* been an Israeli attack on Iran. Most socialists and activists I know would have probably predicted there would be a year ago. I remember why I called it differently - it was because I thought, on balance, that the West and Israel wouldn't *yet* go for their number one target - Iran - but instead fight at least one proxy war. <br /><br />I expected it to be a direct assault on Syria, but in fact it was Israel attacking Gaza combined with escalating covert intervention in Syria (both of these developments have their own dynamics, but have to be seen partly in relation to Iran). The Western powers have remained incapable of intervening in Syria as they'd like. And there's been periodic outbursts of sabre-rattling at Iran. Mind you, on balance I do think Iran will be attacked by Israel in 2013. <br /><br />On the situation in Europe: there has been a serious escalation in the challenge to austerity in southern Europe. It is one of the things that has really defined 2012. 14 November was unprecedented in terms of cross-continent co-ordination and the scale of mass strikes against cuts. The growth in Syriza's support in Greece was also of great importance. The gist of my prediction was that it wouldn't just be Greece but the other southern European countries devastated by austerity that would kick off. So, yes, I think that one was right! <br /><br />On the growth of feminism your points are reasonable. What I expected more of was specifically the kind of street protest which Slutwalk seemed to herald a return of. 2012 has, however, been mixed in that respect. The growth of feminism among mainly young women has instead manifested itself in the ways you indicate (partly protest, but also conferences, networks etc). <br /><br />Re. North Korea: you may well be right, but the main tension in east Asia now seems to be between Japan and China. But it may swing back to being centred on North Korea. There's been a couple of moments lately when its nuclear ambitions have been prominent in the news, but is this a sign of things being any worse than before? Maybe - I'm not sure. <br /><br />On class: now this is quite a minefield! I certainly agree that serious class analysis as we understand it isn't back on the agenda. But in my prediciton I did say that 'most commentators will naturally get things wrong'. It's not socialist analysis going mainstream that I anticipated. <br /><br />A couple of things have happened though. Firstly, the current government is seen as an out-of-touch bunch of old Etonians, defending the interests of the 1%, far more than a year ago. Osborne's budget in March was a turning point. Secondly, even if 'class' isn't always referred to, discussions around inequality, gaps between 1% and 99%, etc, have definitely become more prominent and normal. This is partly a legacy of the 'Occupy moment', partly a reflection of glaringly obvious realities in our society. But there is a gulf between this general tendency, on the one hand, and distinctively socialist politics and the strength of the Left on the other. <br /><br />The most important element here is the gulf bewtween structure and agency. Some people can see roughly what's wrong with the system - they are broadly anti-capitalist - but they are confused and pessimistic when it comes to the question 'who can change it?' This was the core contradiction of the Occupy movement. The organised working class is still weak globally, with a low level of strike actions in countries like our own, and it's not obvious to people that the working class is the primary agent of social change. And what do we mean by 'working class' in 2012 anyway? This is a big part of what the radical left still struggles with. Alex Snowdonhttp://luna17activist.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093114275469628673.post-78601393982306155632012-12-24T19:18:43.793+00:002012-12-24T19:18:43.793+00:00Pretty good going although you may be *slightly* o...Pretty good going although you may be *slightly* over generous with yourself here :)<br /><br />4. there was no military intervention in Syria - and that *was* your prediction.<br /><br />8. China's a big place and there are continued reports of strikes, demonstrations etc - but nothing to suggest a significant growth in militancy, which was your prediction.<br /><br />9. you might be right - but I think I missed the mass strikes in Italy against austerity.<br /><br />12 I think you were too harsh on yourself there. Big conferences like the feminista one organising a specifically feminist current and lots and lots of smaller protests particularly on abortion and sex education (vs Dorries) were I think proving your prediction more right than you say.<br /><br />15. Ummm... it's the opposite is it not? Relations are worse now than they were.<br /><br />18. The topic of class isn't really back on the menu is it? There's lots of brilliant debates around the economy, tax, inequality etc. but I think a class analysis is specifically absent from them (for good and ill)<br /><br />I feel terrible to be picky at Christmas time - sorry!Jim Jeppshttp://jimjepps.netnoreply@blogger.com